As part of their MLB Season Preview Grantland’s Jonah Keri looked at the 2012 Marlins from a Sabermetric perspective. His conclusions:
IF EVERYTHING BREAKS RIGHT
Reyes leads a massive offensive improvement, Johnson returns to Cy Young-caliber form, the aging and injury-wracked Phillies lose their iron grip on the division, and the Fish win the East. We’re still three years and one league switch away from a Back to the Future prophecy, though.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WRONG
Even in a worst-case scenario, the addition of a second wild card and a lack of dominant teams in the National League (PECOTA doesn’t see a single 90-win team) puts the Marlins in the mix, even if Ramirez’s slide continues and the starting pitching isn’t as strong as hoped.