Jason (NJ): Thoughts on the Jacobs for Nunez trade?
Keith Law: I am officially off the Dayton Moore train. Mike Jacobs stinks. A .299 OBP from an everyday corner infielder? They gave up a decent relief arm AND they’re going to pay Jacobs arb salaries when Kile Ka’aihue (of whom I am no huge fan) is sitting right there and could provide equal or better production for free. To say nothing of Shealy or the out-of-favor Billy Butler. It’s just a bad move for KC, and hey, a free reliever for Florida.
I addressed this briefly in chat Thursday, but it’s worth reiterating: The Royals’ trade for Mike Jacobs was a profoundly wrongheaded move.
Jacobs should not get regular playing time from a major league club, period. The fact that the Royals looked at him and thought, “Wow, everyday first baseman!” is terrifying, because it’s so wrong.
The Marlins, always in cost-cutting mode, weren’t particularly interested in taking Jacobs to arbitration this winter, and with a team full of bad defenders, opening up first base to hide one of them seems like a pretty good idea.
He runs some numbers:
But from the other perspective, why on earth does Kansas City want Jacobs? Yes, his power is appealing, and he’s better than his .299 OBP in 2008 would suggest, but even as a .270/.330/.490 guy (which is basically what Marcel has him projected at for 2009), he’s just barely better than a legue average hitter. If we call him +5 runs offensively, then subtract 10 runs for the position adjustment, he’d be a -5 run player if he played league average defense. But he doesn’t - he’s one of the worst defensive first baseman in the game, racking up +/- ratings of -12, -10, and -27 the last three years. Even if we consider 2008 to be an outlier, we’d have to estimate his defensive value at around -10 runs compared to an average first baseman, which we then add to his previous -5 rating, and all of the sudden, Jacobs is about 15 runs worse than a league average first baseman.
And, he also suggests:
Nunez’s sparkly 2.98 ERA and 94 MPH fastball have them thinking that he could be a potential late inning reliever. Even though they’re wrong on that count (Nunez’s combination of lots of fly balls and no strikeouts make him a pretty lousy reliever), moving Jacobs before he costs them too much money makes sense for Florida.
According to a league source, the Marlins are close to trading first baseman Mike Jacobs to the Royals for right-handed reliever Leo Nunez.
The source said on Wednesday night that players have been agreed upon, and the deal could be consummated in the next few days.
The Marlins wanted minor league prospect Carlos Rosa but his health was a major concern so they seemed to have settled on Nunez, who has a decent track record:
The Marlins are looking for bullpen help, and Nunez is a 25-year-old from the Dominican Republic who appeared in 45 games during the ‘08 season. Nunez posted a 4-1 record with a 2.98 ERA while logging 48 1/3 innings.
Nunez could end up as the setup man in the 7th or 8th inning.
The Marlins, who had a $22 million payroll in 2008, wanted to deal Jacobs to Kansas City, but the deal died last week because of a medical issue involving the minor-league pitcher that Florida would have received. The Marlins also spoke to Toronto and San Francisco about Jacobs.
As for Dan Uggla, it looks like the Fish will keep him:
”They haven’t put Uggla out there” — though several teams inquired. The Marlins have decided they value Uggla’s power and run production and it ”will take an insanely high offer” to move him, one official said.
Gaby Sanchez will probably get a chance to win the first base job in the spring but if he falters, expect Jorge Cantu at first and Dallas McPherson at third.
Also, on other front:
One official said the Marlins are still mulling whether to trade or keep Jeremy Hermida and/or Josh Willingham (both arbitration-eligible), but Beinfest wouldn’t discuss that. ”There is still a lot of upside to Hermida,” Beinfest said. ”Willingham, hopefully his back will be healthy.” Several teams inquired about Hermida. Beinfest — speaking in general — said there has been “a lot of interest in our players.”
With Hermida’s underwhelming performance and Willingham’s back, you have to wonder if anyone will offer anything meaningful for either one.
Congrats to Fredi Gonzalez for being named the National League Manager of the Year by The Sporting News. This award, not to be confused with the more official BWAA’s award, has been around for over 70 years and has previously been awarded to Joe Girardi. Fredi joins an all Florida sweep as the Tampa Bay “Devil” Rays’ Joe Maddon won the AL award.
Marlins officials are saying that management is committed to keeping all the players if front office wants to do that.
Some players have high value right now — Mike Jacobs and Jeremy Hermida — and can be replaced by others in the organization (such as Gaby Sanchez) so they are likely to be traded for value.
Therefore, there is no urgency to trade quality players like Scott Olsen or Dan Uggla, unless someone offers the Marlins a great deal.
Ultimately, Olney thinks the Marlins will keep the core of the powerful infield together (good news for Jorge Cantu fans).
Helms reaffirmed his desire to stay with the team on Friday when he agreed to terms on a two-year, $1.9 million contract. The 32-year-old, who batted .243 with five home runs and 31 RBIs in 132 games this past year, will make $950,000 in both 2009 and ‘10.
Wes didn’t put up stellar numbers but was a reliable veteran who has been nothing but a positive influence on the club. The 2-year commitment suggests the Loria and Beinfest are starting to think long-term, not just building small and cheap for 1-year at a time.
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