• Why the Florida Marlins Should Trade Miguel Cabrera

  • We’ve been debating here what to do with Miguel Cabrera and here is one view:

    The more I think about it, the more I am OK with trading Cabrera (assuming the trade is for value).

    With all this Cabrera talk, did anybody every realize that trading him might not be the a bad thing for the club? First, they can get a lot in return (and are apparently asking for a lot). Second, given the Marlins’ revenue constraints, is Cabrera really worth the cost?

    Take a look at these stats… Is Cabrera really that far ahead of Hanley or Uggla?

    Player POS G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
    Cabrera 3B 157 588 91 188 38 2 34 119 332 79 127 2 1 .401 .565 .320
    Ramirez SS 154 639 125 212 48 6 29 81 359 52 95 51 14 .386 .562 .332
    Uggla 2B 159 632 113 155 49 3 31 88 303 68 167 2 1 .326 .476 .245


    Hanley struck out 30% less while having 10% more total bases than Cabrera and still hitting nearly 30 home runs and having nearly identical slugging percentage. That, and Ramirez can steal bases while Cabrera prefers to eat them. Uggla, in the meantime, strikes out way too much, but puts up very respectable numbers. So, while losing Cabrera would mean losing a well known player, it doesn’t, necessarily, hurt the team’s offense as much as, say, the Heat playing without Dwayne Wade or any football team losing its quarterback (not using the Dolphins as an example since they don’t really have a good quarterback). The question then has to be asked, with Ramirez and Uggla (not to mention Hermida, Willingham, and Jacobs — all of whom can hit 20 home runs and in Hermida’s case, for average if healthy), is Cabrera really the “franchise player” on which the future of this team hangs? Or is this just a popularity issue?

    Now, if you are the Marlins, you can keep Cabrera for now but can you keep him in the future (and will you want to?). In the long run (even with a stadium) it will be impossible to keep Cabrera and Ramirez (in addition to young pitchers like Olsen, Nolasco, Sanchez, Mitre, and Johnson). In fact with many of those joining the team at the same time, it seems that down the road the Marlins will hit a time when these young talented players will all be arbitration eligible during the same year and their salaries will increase exponentially. Even with a stadium, the Marlins will never have a revenue stream like the Yankees or Red Sox which will allow them to sign and keep all those players. In other words, Cabrera will either get traded some day or be lost to free agency. Alternatively, the Marlins could plan to keep Cabrera in the long run but that would mean planning on losing one of the other young talented players. Would you keep Cabrera, a player who has shown himself to be lazy and indifferent at times and who for two seasons now has been completely unable to control his physical conditioning and declining defensive skills, or do you keep the guys that hustle and will be able to do something other than hitting? Last I checked baseball does not maintain separate defensive and offensive squads. The concern is that while Cabrera will become the equivalent of Pavel Bure — offensively flashy, defensively useless, and always a member of a losing team, guys like Ramirez and Uggla are dedicated and hardworking.

    That leaves the last question — do you keep Cabrera now, knowing that he will be gone in the future? That depends on whether you can get the trade value you want. This team has many holes that need to be filled in. After last year, we can all admit there is much room for improvement. Trading Cabrera is the most efficient way to fill those holes while securing this team’s on-field future.

  • Opinion
    • fishatbat
    • RETWEETED
      16 years ago

    • 2013 update: Yes, I was wrong. Sucks.

  • Tigers Acquire Cabrera and Willis

  • Wow, the blockbuster deal just happened.

    MLB.com is reporting (and Peter Gammons is confirming) that the Detroit Tigers have acquired Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. In return, the Marlins will get outfielder Cameron Maybin, left-handed pitcher Andrew Miller, catcher Mike Rabelo, right-handed pitcher Eulogio delaCruz, right-handed pitcher Dallas Trahern and right-handed pitcher Burke Badenhop.

    It’s not official yet, but:

    The deal was all but finalized as of late afternoon at the Winter Meetings.

    Here is who we know we’re getting:

    Maybin and Miller were both first-round Draft picks of the Tigers, Maybin in 2005 and Miller in 2006. Both have tasted the Major Leagues.

    Maybin, 20, made his debut in August and appeared in 24 games, hitting .143 with one home run in 49 at-bats. However, he made a rapid rise through the Tigers system, batting .304 with 10 homers in 83 games for Class A Lakeland before making a brief stop at Double-A Erie.

    Miller, 22, made 13 starts for Detroit last season, going 5-6 with a 5.69 ERA. In 78 Minor League innings in 2007, he allowed 71 hits and struck out 61 batters. He was drafted out of the University of North Carolina.

    Looks like Dave Dombrowksi is serious about bringing as many former Marlins to the Tigers as possible.

    Links:  

  • News

  • Latest Cabrera to the Angels Update: No Deal?

  • ESPN’s Jason Stark has the latest update on the Miguel Cabrera discussions.

    First comes the settled part:

    The two teams appear to have agreed that second baseman Howie Kendrick and catcher Jeff Mathis would be part of any deal.

    But where it gets complicated is the Marlins demand for two top notch pitching prospects:

    According to baseball men who have spoken with both teams, the clubs have talked about three young starting pitchers — Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders and the Angels’ best pitching prospect, Nick Adenhart. But the Angels apparently weren’t willing to trade two pitchers from that group without changes to the other half of the package.

    More

  • News

  • All-Star Blogging: Cabrera In, But That’s All

  • It’s been a Marlins fest on TBS today. First, the Fish nearly blew a game against the Braves, ultimately winning on Josh Willingham’s 5th hit of the game. Now, we find out that Miguel Cabrera, will join Fredi Gonzalez on the 2007 National League All-Star team. The fans screwed up in voting for David Wright over Miguel to start the game. Miguel is the better player and is having a much better season. Miguel makes his 4th All-Star game — a Marlins record. With limited roster spots and every team needing a representative, deserving Fish like Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez were snubbed. Of course, with our record, you can understand why this may of happened.

    While we’re at it, lets recognize the former Marlins the made the team: Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, Pudge Rodriguez, Derrek Lee, Brad Penny, and Jim Leyland (AL Manager).

    The game will be played in San Francisco on July 10th.

    Update: Cody Ross said it best: “I’m boycotting the All-Star Game. I’ll watch Miggy, then I’m going to turn it off.”

  • News
  • Photo by @Marlins

  • Jose Fernandez Pitches a Perfect Inning in All-Star Debut

  • In what should the first of many All-Star Games, Jose Fernandez pitched a perfect 6th inning for the NL. Fernandez struck out former AL MVP Dustin Pedroia, enduced a foul popup from current AL MVP Miguel Cabrera and then struck out MVP front runner Chris Davis.

    Fernandez, the youngest pitcher to pitch in an All-Star Game since 1985 (Doc Gooden), joined Gooden, Fernando Valenzuela, Bob Feller and Jerry Walker as the only pitchers 20 years or younger to pitch in an All-Star Game. Only Fernandez, Gooden and Feller struck out two or more at that age.

  • José Fernández

  • Bizarro Marlins: Replacing the 2012 Miami Marlins Lineup With Historically Similar Players

  • As the Marlins struggle to a 2-5 start, I decided to embark on a useless but entertaining effort to re-imagine the Marlins lineup if it was replaced by historically similar players as determined by Baseball Reference‘s Similarity Score. It’s a quirky way to put the Marlins lineup in perspective as it looks at a player’s numbers and age without any bias towards talent or potential.

    A possible Bizzaro Marlins lineup (using familiar and recent names) could look like this: Jimmy Rollins (SS), Lenny Harris (CF), Ryan Zimmerman (3B), Miguel Cabrera (LF), Juan Encarnacion (RF), J.T. Snow (1B), Adam Kennedy (SS), Jason LaRue (C), David Cone (P).

    Here is what this Bizarro Marlins lineup would look like:

    C: Andy Seminick (John Buck)
    Seminick played in the 40s and 50s so you may have never heard of him. More recent names are Jason LaRue and Miguel Olivo. I’m not sure any of these guys scream out $6,000,000 per season.

    1B: Pat Putnam (Gaby Sanchez)
    Once again, a historically insignificant player, this time from the late 70s and early 80s. Steve Cox, J.T. Snow, and Jeremy Giambi are more recent comparables.

    2B: Adam Kennedy (Omar Infante)
    Serviceable and uninspiring at 2B. Sounds like Infante (excluding his hot start this season).

    SS: Jimmy Rollins (Jose Reyes)
    Fairly obvious choice here with two really good shortstops. Rafael Furcal and even Ryne Sandberg come up as similar choices.

    3B: Tony Lazzeri (Hanley Ramirez)
    This choice gets difficult because statistcally, Hanley is performing at a level equivilant great non-thirdbasemen like Derek Jeter, Joe Mauer, Troy Tulowitzki, Dustin Pedroia, and Victor Martinez. Since I’m keeping it by position I went with Hall-of-Famer Tony Lazzeri, who played in the 1920s and 1930s. A more familiar name would be Ryan Zimmerman.

    OF: Juan Encarnacion (Logan Morrison)
    Chose the former Marlins outfielder. LoMo’s short service time make for a hard comparison but his upside should hopefully elevate his comparables (such as was the case with Carlos Gonzalez who was similar to LoMo when he was 24).

    OF: Bobby Valentine (Emilio Bonifacio)
    Hard comparison here because Bonifacio is playing out of position. A more contemporary player would be former Marlin and baseball’s all-time pinch hit king Lenny Harris.

    OF: Miguel Cabrera (Giancarlo Stanton)
    Chose former Marlin Miguel Cabrera over Ruben Sierra because Sierra’s career took a nose dive and some of his numbers may have been a bit, shall we say, “juiced”. Other names that come up are Justin Upton, Andruw Jones, Juan Gonzalez and even Jose Canseco.

    SP: David Cone (Josh Johnson)
    David Cone, Adam Wainwright, and Orel Hershiser sound like a very nice list. If Josh can stay healthy and post bigger numbers, his comparables would sky rocket to Hall-of-Fame pitchers.

    SP: Frank Viola (Mark Buehrle)
    Relatively low-scoring comparables. Mark Buehrle may be his own best replacement.

    SP: Gavin Floyd (Ricky Nolasco)
    Also James Shields, Joe Blanton, and Gil Meche. Best description for Nolasco: Upside of Shields with the blah-ness of Meche.

    SP: A.J. Burnett (Anibal Sanchez)
    Not much to add here. Hopefully doesn’t crash and burn like Burnett.

    SP: Ramon Martinez (Carlos Zambrano)
    Zambrano always seemed to be on the cusp of greatness which is why you’ll see names like Jack Morris, Barry Zito, John Smoltz, and Jack McDowell as comparables.

    CL: J.J. Putz (Heath Bell)
    Nothing historic here. Reflection of Bell’s age and having 5 meaningless seasons as a reliever followed by 3 incredible seasons as a closer.

  • Fun & Games

  • SI Hacks Continue to Push Loria Urban Legend

  • I’ve always thought that Jeffrey Loria‘s bad reputation in the media was highlight exaggerated. Therefore, I’m not surprised to read that Sports Illustrated just named him as one of the 5 worst owners in MLB. Here is what they had to say:

    Despite the best efforts of another crop of youngsters, Loria may be running a second franchise into the ground. The art dealer turned a nation of fans against him with his first team, the Expos, before forcing their move from Montreal and selling them back to Major League Baseball. He then took control of the Marlins and watched his exciting team shock the Yankees in the 2003 World Series and then became Miami fans’ worst nightmare: the second coming of Wayne Huizenga. The Marlins slowly have been rebuilding themselves with more young talent, despite the lowest cash outlay provided by any owner, and could be turning a corner soon. That is, until Hanley Ramírez and Dan Uggla are shown the door like Josh Beckett, Derrek Lee and Miguel Cabrera.

    =It is clear that the SI team just phoned this one in. After all why do any research and thinking when you have this urban legend about Mr. Loria. While he didn’t make the best moves in Montreal, he was, in the end, nothing more than a caretaker for a dying franchise. His time with the Marlins has been a mix — a couple of fire sales on one hand, but a championship and a new ballpark on the other. We can debate his decision to keep a low payroll for most of his tenure but it is the results on the field and talent today that matter. Despite not being a serious contender since winning it all in 2003, the team still outperforms many MLB teams over this period.

    Today, the Fish are looking at a new ballpark which secures their existence in South Florida for the long run. Hanley Ramirez is locked up for the next 6-years of his potential Hall of Fame career. Larry Beinfest and Mike Hill continue to run and excellent front office which has built a nice core of young players that allows the Fish to compete. Yes, we will miss Josh Beckett, Derrek Lee and Miguel Cabrera but no team (other than the Yankees, perhaps) could have kept all these guys. In fact, in baseball, you can be good one day and terrible the other. See Dontrelle Willis. And SI, since you liked ripping Dan Uggla for his All-Star errors, but now elevate him to a star, I will point out his sub .200 average today.

    I’m not elevating Mr. Loria on a pedestal. He, like every MLB owner, has made mistakes and clearly he hasn’t spent as much money as everyone would like him to spend. But his performance as the owner of the Marlins has been a successful one. He has a championship, a great front office, a new ballpark and talent for the future. It’s something very few teams have today.

  • Opinion